With the backdrop of Kachin Independence Army (KIA) cadet school shelling by the Burma Army, in Laiza, Nationawide Ceasefire Coordinating Team (NCCT) and Union Peacemaking Working Committee (UPWC) scheduled December meeting  in Thailand, to talk about the talks, on how to proceed with the stalled peace process, since they last met in September, won't be an easy task, with little or no trust left to go on with the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) formulation.

According to Free Burma Ranger report of 21 November: “At 12:15 on 19 November 2014, the Burma Army’s Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 390 fired a 105mm Howitzer at the Kachin Woi Chyai Bum Officer Training School, killing 23 trainees. The Burma Army fired from their position on Hka Ya Bum mountain, which has a direct line of sight to the Kachin training school, located north of Laiza in Waingmaw Township, Kachin State. The shell impacted on the parade ground of the Woi Chyai Bum Officer Training School when officer trainees were practising drills. Twenty trainees were instantly killed and three died of their wounds on the same day.  At least twenty people were wounded, including four instructors.”

In an interview reported by RFA, on 21 November, KIA spokesman La Nan said that the shelling was intentional and must have been aimed with the aid of binocular, before pulling the trigger on cadet trainees. The Burma Army statement of a deliberate act of self-defence and stray ammunition hitting the cadet school, as an unintentional act is absolutely not true, said La Nan. He further stress that the skirmishes that occurred between 16 to 19 November between KIA and Burma Army were at least 40 kilometres away from the Laiza cadet school.

According to DVB report , on 21 November, Burma Army on 20 November rejected blame for the incident, saying that the artillery shell fired was a “warning shot”, which was taken shortly after KIA troops attacked a Tatmadaw column providing security at roadworks along the Sama Junction-Gagun route.
The VOA recent interview with Commander-in-Chief, General Min Aung Hliang, on 23 November, buttress the Burma Army's position that the Laiza cadet school shelling was a warning shot and not intentional.

When asked by the VOA, if the 19 November incident of shelling the Laiza headquarters, which was quite far away from the armed clashes with the Burma Army, isn't going beyond the norm of self-defence and whether it would be like inviting counter attacks within Burma Army's control areas, Min Aung Hliang replied that even the incident that happened, where a Tatmadaw column was providing security for the roadworks and shelling that took place were far apart, it was a just a warning shot to make them aware, which is one military theory from many others.

Again, the RFA interview with General Gun Maw, deputy commander-in-chief of KIA and top NCCT leader, on 22 November said that the problem with the recent intentional shelling of the KIA Laiza base and NCCT forth-coming meeting will be handled separately. He said that the KIO has asked U Aung Min for a separate meeting to talk about the problem. Concerning the shelling, he elaborated that it was not the difference of statement from government and KIO, but the total false publicized assessment, contradicting with the reality on the ground. He further accused the President and government's news outlet as not reporting the truth and thus has damage the trust-building, now reaching its lowest ebb. He said accidental clashes could be understandable, but intentional ones only would lead to the deterioration of peace process. On the President's suggestion that both warring parties should abide by the agreement so that to avoid clashes, he answered that there has been no such rules or code of conduct agreed upon, whatsoever, as yet. In order to avoid such incidents, he said that they are considering if monitoring and intervention of UN and China could be asked to include as neutral parties.

Part of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) in its “Position Statement” released on 20 November 2014, regarding the artillery bombardment, writes:

“During the time when effort is being made to establish trust for the achievement of peace in the country, the use of military pressure by the Burma Tatmadaw raises the question of whether the Burma Tatmadaw really has the desire and intention for peace, and it should be mindful that such acts are a serious obstacle to the establishment of trust.”

“The timing of the attacks with the Union Parliament Speaker U Shwe Mann's comment that amendment of the 2008 Constitution would be possible only after the 2015 election could be assumed as a case of joint military-political conspiracy.”

All in all, the present situation is preservation of the status quo, as far as the USDP-Military regime is concerned. It also seems that it has been able to work out or sort out a compromise with the Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) camp concerning the amendment of the 2008 Constitution.

According to DVB report on 19 November, Suu Kyi speaking to reporters said, “He [Shwe Mann] was talking about the process [of constitutional reform], and this is how it has to be. Suppose there is a decision to amend Article 436 – with regard to time and procedure, it has to follow this process.”

“I know people have held a lot of hope in me becoming president in 2015, but in order to amend Article 59(f), Article 436 must be amended first. Therefore it is realistic to follow this procedure.”

Article 436 stipulates that any constitutional amendment requires the approval of 75 percent of parliament. Critics say that the clause is undemocratic because it provides the military – which is appointed 25 percent of parliamentary seats – veto power on any proposed amendments.

Article 59(f) is the clause that bars Suu Kyi from running for the presidency or vice-presidency because her sons – and deceased husband – have foreign citizenship.

The same DVB report further said that the opposition leader’s comments come shortly after her party spokesman Nyan Win admitted to news agency AFP that the NLD “cannot win” the battle to change the constitution.

“Calculate the ratio mathematically,” he is reported saying. “We cannot win [the fight to change key sections of the constitution].

And with the Suu Kyi and her NLD camp effectively tamed and neutralized, the USDP-Military clique reasoned that it could now afford to push ahead with its policy of containment and negotiated surrender on the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO), with military offensives ready to be launched, if it fails to secure its policy intention.

Min Ko Niang, the charismatic student leader of 88 generation doesn't seems to be so enthusiastic with the Suu Kyi capitulation, particularly abandoning the voice of five millions voices backing the NLD's signature campaign to amend the 2008 military-drafted constitution.

He said during the recent interview with RFA, on 21 November, regarding the incident of KIA cadet school shelling, that it had complicated the matters and negatively impacted upon the peace process and as well, the constitutional amendment of the country. He further said that the voice of the five millions citizens must be honoured and should not reject it as unimportant; and that trust with  the outer parliamentary movement must be maintained, empowered and positioned as pressure groups, without loosing sight of the developing political situation. He said constitutional amendment must not be seen only from the law point of view for it is politics, which concerns every politically aware individual.

For now, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has asked the government to withdraw all its outposts from around the Laiza vicinity to prevent such happenings in the future and the possible, monitoring of neutral party, which the UN and China should be involved. And as such, whether the peace process will continue or not  would solely depend on how sincere and how much political will the USDP-Military regime posses and what kind of accommodation it could offer to all the ethnic armed organizations as a whole.